Hey there!

I'm a business intelligence analyst interested in financial modeling, decision theory, games, probability, and "esports" as a competitive/probabilistic field.

I am proficient in Excel, SQL, Python, R, Tableau, PowerBI, and Bayesian statistics.

My background gives me the curiosity to question assumptions, the skills to test them, and the persistence to find what’s really true.

Check out my my portfolio.

Nicholas A. Beaver

Business Intelligence Analyst

Latest Projects


Rent vs. Purchase of a Home: Projection Over 31 Years (with Excel Modeling Tool)

This analysis compares three models—a 30-year mortgage, a 15-year mortgage, and a lifelong renter—over the course of 31 years. Net worth and rates of return for each model are compared at the end of the period. The project uses a downloadable Excel Tool to perform the calculations.

Investing for a Child’s College Education: A Three-Step Financial Planning & Analysis Process

Project estimates future college costs and investment returns, then computes monthly 529 contributions across optimistic, average, and pessimistic scenarios, producing a nine-scenario matrix to guide savings decisions.

Putting DEI Results to the Test with Bayesian Probability

This project examines the effectiveness of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives using Bayesian probability, proposing to empirically test outcomes to inform both advocates and opponents of the effectives of such policies.

Logistic Regression and Counterfactual Thinking with Titanic Survivorship Data

This project employs Titanic passenger data to develop a logistic regression model predicting survival probabilities, assessing accuracy through proprietary methods and addressing counterfactual scenarios regarding class and sex.

Predicting Customer Satisfaction Scores with Zero One Inflated (ZOI) Beta Model

This study analyzed a dataset of 38,444 customers to predict Satisfaction Scores using a zero one inflated beta model and achieving an R-squared of ~0.76.

An Accuracy Rating System for Discrete Probability Predictions Using Sportsbook Odds for Super Bowl LIX

ABSTRACT This paper presents a practical accuracy rating system for evaluating discrete probability predictions. The approach assigns credit based on…

An Outline of a Basic TCG Sportsbook Model

This paper outlines a baseline sportsbook model for wagering on competitive trading card games (TCGs) such as Magic: The Gathering, Pokémon, and Yu-Gi-Oh!.