Project 1A: An Outline of a Basic TCG Sportsbook Model

Written on March 7, 2025 by Nicholas Beaver

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ABSTRACT

This paper outlines a baseline sportsbook model for wagering on competitive trading card games (TCGs) such as Magic: The Gathering, Pokémon, and Yu-Gi-Oh!. Using the Glicko-2 rating system, a logistic distribution to assess deck strength’s impact on competitor win probability, Monte Carlo simulations, and Bayesian inference, we evaluate the feasibility and profitability of such a sportsbook from the perspective of the operator. A simulated world championship tournament, repeated over 10,000 iterations, representing 310,000 simulated matches, assesses expected profitability as measured by gross gaming revenue (GGR). Findings indicate a 75.7% probability of achieving a GGR margin above 5%, suggesting that a TCG sportsbook could be a viable business model.

Beyond theoretical validation, this paper discusses key challenges, including data availability and regulatory considerations. Future research should focus on refining the model with empirical data, implementing real-time probability and pricing adjustments, conducting necessary market research, and addressing legal and operational hurdles. This study provides a foundational approach to TCG wagering within the broader “esports” betting landscape upon which future work might be built.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, sports betting, trading card games, Glicko-2, Microsoft Excel, R programming, gambling models, financial modelling, sportsbook profitability