Project 2A: Rating Sportsbook & Prediction Market Accuracy [Pending]

Written on March 16, 2025 by Nicholas Beaver

Categories:

[Estimated release date: June 13, 2025]

ABSTRACT

This paper presents methodologies for evaluating the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, both as standalone forecasts and within a time series leading up to a single event. We apply these methods to assess the predictive performance of two major U.S. sportsbook operators, DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as the prominent prediction market Polymarket. By comparing these sources, we highlight differences in forecasting approaches and the reliability of probabilistic estimates over time.

WHITE PAPER

[COMING SOON]

PROJECT FILES

[COMING SOON]

Nick Beaver