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Nick Beaver

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    "A wise man... apportions his belief to the evidence."
    —David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

    “Probability... is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.”
    ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

    "[T]he only thing we can ever know with certainty is: what is our state of knowledge?"

    —E.T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: the Logic of Science

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