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Nick Beaver

Data Analysis Portfolio

Tag: Probability

How Decks Influence Win Probability in TCGs

March 7, 2025

Trading card games (TCGs) differ from traditional skill games by allowing deck customization, influencing win probability. This discussion explores deck strength’s impact on performance using the Glicko-2 skill rating system.

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"A wise man... apportions his belief to the evidence."
—David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

“Probability... is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

"[T]he only thing we can ever know with certainty is: what is our state of knowledge?"

—E.T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: the Logic of Science

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